Spaghetti Models Show Three Storms’ Paths in Wake of Hurricane Helene

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring three named tropical storm systems—Isaac, Joyce and Kirk—in the wake of Hurricane Helene’s catastrophic path of destruction, although it appears none of the systems are expected to make landfall in the U.S.
Helene made landfall last Thursday night as a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of around 140 mph near the city of Perry in the state’s Big Bend region. The storm brought fatalities across several Southern and Southeastern states, with storm surge, devastating winds and torrential rain that threatened several dams and inundated Asheville, North Carolina, with floodwaters. More than 100 people were killed by the storm, the Associated Press reported.
The Atlantic hurricane season is heating up with the three named storm systems that developed after Helene. Post-tropical cyclone Isaac is churning northeast of the U.S. far out at sea and has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical Depression Joyce is southeast of the U.S., with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. And Tropical Storm Kirk is southeast of Joyce and has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
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Spaghetti models—or computer models illustrating potential storm paths—show that each of the storms will likely stay clear of the U.S., according to the Cyclocane website. Most paths for Isaac show the storm heading toward Europe, although the storm is expected to continue weakening before it makes landfall. Joyce is expected to dissolve on Monday. Kirk is likely to shift northeast to take aim at Europe, although one model shows the storm moving southwest with a path toward South America’s Guyana.
Kirk could bring some indirect impacts to the Eastern Seaboard, National Weather Service (NWS) Warning Coordination Meteorologist Will Ulrich told Newsweek, as deadly rip currents generated by the storm can affect places hundreds of miles away. Rip current warnings will likely be in place for the affected areas this weekend and early next week.
Although it is highly unlikely that any of the three named storms will hit the U.S., the NHC is monitoring two potential systems, one of which might put the U.S. Gulf Coast states at risk should it continue to develop.
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The NHC website says Disturbance 1 is “a large and disorganized area of low pressure located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea.” The disturbance is producing some thunderstorms, although it is unlikely to strengthen into a named storm in the next 48 hours. NHC experts anticipate a 40 percent chance of the system forming within the next seven days.
“Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea,” the NHC said. “While interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend.”
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AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that meteorologists were more concerned about Disturbance 1 a few days ago. Although the system could still develop into a tropical storm or even a hurricane, DaSilva said, the energy is not as consolidated as it had been and it’s unlikely to become a major hurricane.
The second disturbance, Disturbance 2, has a 30 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance of formation in the next seven days. The disturbance is considered a tropical wave “located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.”
“Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic,” the NHC said.
Spaghetti models for these two systems have not yet become available on the Cyclocane website, given the storms’ early stages.